试论新阶段中美关系的特点与趋势

On The Characteristics and Trends of Sino-U.S. Relations during the New Phase

中美关系进入了一个新阶段。自从中美两国1979年建交以来,中美关系第三次走到十字路口。特朗普政府放弃冷战结束后美国历届政府对中国实行的'接触'政策,转向与中国进行'战略竞争',但并不排除有选择地与中国进行某些合作。'中美战略竞争背景下的有选择合作'成为中美关系新常态。中美现在进入战略竞争的长期相持阶段,两国既竞争又合作的竞合关系将持续很长一段时期。特朗普政府的行动将使中美关系走向部分脱钩,主要在高科技、两军交流和学者学生交流等方面。中美战略竞争和博弈的主要领域包括:中美经贸摩擦将长期化;中美在安全领域既竞争又合作将常态化;中美在台湾问题上的博弈可能增多;中美在人权问题上的争议对两国关系的负面影响上升。中美关系进入新阶段的主要原因包括:中美关系在国际体系中的结构性矛盾;经济全球化的负面影响;中美战略文化的巨大差异;美国两党在对华态度方面形成一些新的共识。

Sino-U.S. Relations has entered a new phase.Since the establishment of China-U.S. diplomatic relations,the relations of the two countries have come to the crossroads for the third time.The Trump Administration has given up the'engagement'policy of the successive U.S. Administrations towards China since the end of the Cold War,and pursued the'strategic competition'against China with some selected cooperation,which has become a new normal in China-U.S. Relations.China and the U.S. have entered the long-term stalemate in strategic competition,in which they will have the relationship of both completion and cooperation.The activities of the Trump Administration will make Sino-U.S. Relations partially disengaged,especially in high-tech,mil-mil exchanges,scholar and student exchanges.The major fields of completion and game-playing between the two countries include:Sino-U.S. economic and trade frictions will be prolonged;China and the United States will both compete and cooperate in the field of security;there may be more Chinese and U.S. games on Taiwan;the negative impact of Sino-U.S. disputes on human rights issues on bilateral relations will increase.Main reasons for the entry into a new phase of China-U.S. Relations include:structural conflict in China-U.S. Relations in the international system;the negative impacts of the economic globalization;the great differences between Chinese and American Strategic Cultures;the two parties in the U.S. have developed some new consensus on their attitude toward China.