积极财政政策执行效果及隐忧问题研究——H省执行情况个案分析

The Effect and Problem of Positive Fiscal Policy:A Case in H Province

基于凯恩斯主义国民收入决定理论 ,通过对H省经济运行数据的实证模拟 ,分析H省积极财政政策的执行情况 ,并结合H省省情和我国国情 ,我们得到了九个基本命题 :命题 1∶H省经济处于投资陷阱之中 ,因而货币政策无效 ,财政政策充分有效。命题 2∶H省的财政政策乘数为 5 596,投资需求拉动乘数为 2 3 945,消费需求拉动乘数为2 2 0 1 5,财政支出回馈乘数为 0 2 2 66。命题 3∶H省国债转贷与补助资金拉动的经济增长率为 :1 988年 0 6个百分点 ,1 999年 0 9个百分点 ,2 0 0 0年 0 6个百分点 ,2 0 0 1年 0 5个百分点。命题 4:乘数愈大 ,积极财政政策的效果愈大 ,但积极财政政策退出造成的负作用也愈大 ,总需求和经济增长对积极财政政策的依赖程度也愈强。命题 5,民营化程度愈低 ,投资的利率弹性愈低 ,货币政策愈无效 ,反之亦然。命题 6,民营化程度愈低 ,财政依赖程度愈强 ,反之亦然。命题 7:我国的积极财政政策必然会退出 ;退出的最佳方式是淡出 ;维持现有国债规模是淡出的最可能的形式 ,是一个聚点均衡。命题 8:H省的民营化程度低于全国的平均水平 ,财政依赖程度高于全国的平均水平 ,自主性增长动力尤显不足。命题 9:如果没有激励民间投资的有效措施出台 ,积极财政政策淡出将使H省经济增长速度下滑。

We constructed the models using the economic data of H Province and analyzed the operation effect of positive fiscal policy in H Province. We had gotten 9 basic theorems,based on Keynesian theory.Theorem 1:The economy in H Province is operating in the investment trap. So the monetary policy is ineffective and the fiscal policy is perfectly effective.Theorem 2:In H Privince,the fiscal policy multiplier is 5.596,and the multipliers of investment demand and the consumption demand pulled by fiscall policy are 2.3945,2.2015 respectively. And the feed-back multiplier of fiscal expenditure is 0.2266.Theorem 3:The economic growth rate pulled by the transfer loan of government bonds and the subsidy in H Province were 0.6,0.9,0.6,0.5 in 1998,1999,2000,2001 respectively.Theorem 4:The greater the multiplier,the more effect the positive fiscal policy is.But if the policy exits,the negative effect will be greater too.Theorem 5:The lower the degree of individualization,the lower the interest elasticity of investment is.Theorem 6:The lower the degree of individualization,the more dependent on positive fiscal policy is and vice versa.Theorem 7:The positive fiscal policy will retreat inevitably,and the best approach will be a gradual retreat.Theorem 8:The dependence on positive fiscal policy is higher than average.So the autonomous growth drive is awfully inadequate.Theorem 9:If the proper measures are not taken to stimulate private investment,the economic growth rate in H Province will diminish due to the gradual retreat of positive fiscal policy.