西部大开发中榆林PRED系统分析与持续发展道路

Using PRED Method to Study Economic and Sustainable Development of Yulin District

文章用PRED系统分析的方法 ,探讨了西部大开发过程中陕西榆林应该注意的四大因素 :人口、资源、环境、经济以及其与水土保持的关系 ,总结出一套WSC -PRED模式。文章力求实用性和可操作性 ,并提出了榆林工业要走集群化发展的路子 ;农业要走农田基建和农业产业化的路子 ;资源开发要确定最低限 ,不能太慢 ;人口必须进行大调整。只有如此才有可能实现榆林经济的腾飞 ,才能彻底解决榆林的水土流失问题。

PRED series system method was applied to study on Yulin district economy.By this method,it is pointed that the Yulin district economy not only should pay attention to the relations among the four-factors(population,resources,environment,economy),but also should consider the relation between these factors and water and soil conversation.A suit of WSC-PRED model is put forward.Sustainable development of Yulin district economy depends on a means of gathering development of industries; The infrastructure agriculture Should be enhanced.Thus the environment could be improved, and the water and soil conversation could be done.