柴达木盆地绿洲区可持续发展现状的定量评价研究

Quantitative Evaluation of Sustainable Development in Oasis of Qaidam Basin

柴达木盆地是我国内陆干旱区的三大盆地之一 ,这里不仅资源丰富 ,是重要的资源宝库 ,而且是进出西藏、新疆的重要门户 ,地缘政治地位亦十分重要。盆地内社会、政治、经济稳定持续的发展是西部大开发战略在青海得以顺利实施的重要保证 ,由于所处的独特的自然地理环境和地理位置 ,已逐渐成为人们研究的热点。本文以教育部骨干教师基金“柴达木盆地东部土地沙漠化遥感与GIS综合研究”的部分成果为基础 ,以定性和定量相结合的方法 ,综合自然、社会、经济因素的多项指标 ,采用指标权重层次分析方法 ,从全区县 (市、镇 )一级单位的数据出发进行单因素指标的分级评价和多因素综合计算得到全区的资源环境和社会发展的各项指标值 ,建立柴达木盆地绿洲区社会经济可持续发展现状的多指标综合评价模型 ,揭示其社会经济可持续发展现状。评价结果表明 :柴达木盆地绿洲区各个市、县的综合评价得分介于58.94(格尔木市 )至 38.74(德令哈市 )之间 ,平均值仅为 47.47,说明该区可持续发展水平和可持续发展能力较低 ,生态环境恶劣是影响本区社会经济可持续发展的最重要的限制因素.

As one of the three inland basins in our country, Qaidam basin not only has affluence resources but also is key entrance to Xizang and Xinjiang, and it also has very important status in the aspect of geopolitics. In the basin, the steady and sustainable development of society, politics and economy will be able to assure the successful implementation of the policy of "West Development" in Qinghai province effectively. Because of it's special natural geo-environment and geographic location, it has gradually become a research focus. Basied on the achievement of the national "9.5" key item "Integrated studies on the desertification of eastern Qaidam Basin by remote sensing and GIS", the sustainable quantitative research to this region, qualitative and quantitative analysis of nature, society and economy factors, and applying the hierarchy analysis of indexes' weightiness, every index of resources and environment and society development in the region were drawn by evaluating single-factor index and comprehensively computing multi-factor indexes from the data of county (city or town) districts in all region. Furthermore, the multi-index comprehensive evaluating model of sustainable development status about the oasis in the east of Qaidam basin were drawn. Evaluating results indicated that in the oasis region in east Qaidam basin every cities and counties have gotten the scores ranging between 58.94(Golmud city's score) and 38.74(Delingha city's score), and the average score of all is only 47.47. These numbers show that in the region the level and capability of the sustainable development are comparatively low, So it is showed that the wretched Eco-environment is the most important restricting factors of affecting sustainable development of society and economy in this region.The paper has also indicated the status of its sustainable development of society and environment. Furthermore, it has discussed the feasibility of its further development.