股指波动与经济增长背离关系的实证分析

二十世纪 90年代以来中国经济持续高速增长 ,但日益发展的股票市场却呈现出与经济增长背离的走势 ,从经济预测角度来看二者的背离形成了与世界不同的发展模式。本文采用实证方法从市场和经济效率角度分析这一背离现象 ,发现股票市场资源配置效率的低下与经济增长的简单再生产性质是导致二者背离的主要原因 ,并对此提出了相应的改进措施。

The Chinese economy has been high-speed growing since the 90's of 20th century. But the growing stock market has appeared the deviate relationship with the movement of the economy. We could see on the economical forecasting view that the deviate relationship between economy and stock market makes China to be the different developing model from the rest of the world. This paper use the positive method examine this matter at market and economic efficiencies, discovered the reasons of the deviate relationship are poor distribution of marketing resources and the simple reproductions.