基于多元回归——灰色预测组合方法的煤炭行业人才需求预测

Combination Forecasting of Coal Industry Human Resource Demand Based on Multiple Regression Model and Grey Forecasting

在对煤炭行业人才需求的预测中,利用单项预测方法进行预测有时会受到局限,本文提出一种基于多元回归——灰色预测的组合预测方法对煤炭行业人才需求进行预测。选取30个煤炭企业2013—2017年期间人才变动的数据,提取煤炭年产量和年薪酬水平为主要因子,对2013—2017年的煤炭行业经营管理人才需求量进行预测,残差分析结果表明,用多元回归-灰色预测模型预测较单一方法更有效,构建的预测方法具有很好的适用性。

According to the limitations of single method in forecasting human resource demand of coal industry,we present a combination forecasting method based on multiple regression model and grey forecasting. By using the data of 30 coal enterprises during the period of 2013—2017 and extracting two main factors: the annual coal output and worker salary level,we forecasted the human resource demand of coal industry from 2013 to 2017. The research result shows that the combination forecasting method is more effective than the single forecasting method,and the combination forecasting method has good applicability.