EPIC模型对华北平原冬小麦与夏玉米生长和产量模拟的适用性评价

Applicability of EPIC Model on Simulation of Growth and Yield of Winter Wheat and Summer Maize in the North China Plain

为验证EPIC模型应用于华北地区农业生产的适用性,利用禹城生态试验站的试验观测数据对该模型参数进行了修订,构建了适合华北平原的模型参数数据库,并分别验证了2003-2005年冬小麦、2004年夏玉米的叶面积指数、生物量和产量模拟的精度与适用性。结果表明,EPIC模型对禹城站冬小麦和夏玉米叶面积指数和地上部生物量的模拟值和实测值随时间的变化趋势大体一致,决定系数均高于0.81;EPIC模型对禹城站2004、2005年冬小麦产量的模拟误差分别为1.61%和-2.56%,对2004夏玉米产量的模拟误差为-2.60%。因此,该模型模拟产量的绝对误差低于2.60%,适用于华北平原冬小麦和夏玉米的产量评估。

This paper build the main database of EPIC model using experimental data from Yucheng Comprehensive Experimental Station in the North China Plain and evaluated its applicability in simulating growth and yield of winter wheat and summer maize.Main crop parameters were calibrated for winter wheat and summer maize,and the performance of EPIC model was tested in simulating the leaf area index(LAI),standing live biomass(STL)and yield for winter wheat during 2003-2005 and summer maize in 2004.The results showed that the simulation results for both LAI and STL were consistent with the experiment results,with all the determination coefficients being above 0.81.The simulation errors for winter wheat yield in 2004 and 2005 were 1.61% and-2.56%,for summer maize in 2004 was-2.60%,respectively.Therefore,the simulation results were reasonably well matched with the observed data including the LAI and above-ground biomass,and the simulated yield differed less than 2.60%from the observed yields,illustrating that EPIC model is a useful and applicable tool for winter wheat and summer maize yield modeling study in North China Plain.