基于ISM和AHP的燃气管道完整性影响因素研究

Research on Influencing Factors of Gas Pipeline Integrity Based on ISM and AHP

针对燃气管道完整性影响因素众多、关系复杂且结构不清的特点,采用解释结构模型(ISM)方法,通过可达矩阵对影响燃气管道完整性的24个因素进行定量描述,将燃气管道完整性影响因素分为7级,并划分层次和关联关系,为城镇燃气管道完整性管理提供理论依据。基于解释结构模型确定的燃气管道完整性表层影响因素,通过层次分析法(AHP)对各表层影响因素的影响力进行计算。在表层影响因素中,管网因素(指管网设备故障、运行压力及波动、使用时间、管材质量和管道内腐蚀)和人为因素(指操作失误)是影响安全生产的最直接、最重要的因素,管网因素占比达50. 94%,其中操作失误、管网设备故障以及管材质量对管道完整性的影响较大。

In view of the many influencing factors of the gas pipeline integrity,the complex relationship and the unclear structure,the interpretative structural model(ISM)method is used to quantitatively describe the 24 factors affecting the gas pipeline integrity through the reachable matrix.The influencing factors of the gas pipeline integrity are divided into 7 levels,and the hierarchy and relevance relationship are divided to provide a theoretical basis for the management of urban gas pipeline integrity.Based on the surface influencing factors of the gas pipeline integrity determined by the ISM,the influence of each surface influencing factor is calculated by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP).Among the surface influencing factors,pipe network factors(referring to pipe network equipment failure,operating pressure and fluctuation,use time,pipe quality and pipeline internal corrosion)and human factors(referring to operational errors)are the most direct and important factors affecting safety production.The pipe network factors account for50.94%,of which the operational errors,pipe network equipment failure and pipe quality have a greater impact on pipeline integrity.