对人民币汇率与广东省进出口额之间关系的实证分析

A Positive Analysis of the Relation Between RMB Exchange Rate and Imp. & Exp. Volume of Guangdong Province

以国际贸易理论为基础,利用广东省的若干宏观经济数据。对人民币汇率与广东省进出口额之间的关系进行实证分析,分别得出人民币汇率与广东省的出口额、进口额之间的数量关系,也得出了世界GDP指数与广东省出口额之间的数量关系、广东省GDP指数与广东省进口额之间的数量关系以及进口关税税率与广东省进口额之间的数量关系。同时,对广东省出口额的预测值与实际值之间的残差做了简要分析。

The article, by making use of the macro - economic statistics of Guangdong province to conduct a positive analysis of the relation between RMB exchange rate and import - export volume of Guangdong, demonstrates the quantitative relation between the RMB exchange rate and the Province's import - export volume, and that between the world GDP index and the Province's export volume as well as that between the import tariff rate and the Province' s import volume. In addition, a brief analysis is made of the residual between the observed value of the Province's export volume and the estimated value.