基于灰色斜率关联度模型的瓦斯突出危险性风险评价

Risk Evaluation of Gas Outburst Fatalness Based on Model of Grey Slope Correlation Degree

为了提高煤矿瓦斯突出危险性风险评价的准确性和可靠性,对传统的灰色关联分析方法进行了改进,采用了灰色关联分析里的斜率关联度模型,将已知的巷道风量、瓦斯体积分数和瓦斯涌出量数据代入此模型来定量地计算出各巷道与标准巷道的斜率关联度值,此关联度值即为接近程度或安全程度,由计算结果可以得出所研究的3条巷道的瓦斯突出危险程度大小顺序,应用结果表明:灰色关联分析用于瓦斯突出危险性风险评价具有较好的效果,并且该斜率关联度模型和原有的方法相比,风险评价的准确性得到了一定程度的提高,可以为现场的风险评价提供科学依据。

In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of risk evaluation of gas outburst fatalness,the traditional grey relation analysis method was improved, and model of slope correlation degree was applied. The slope correlation degrees, which were also equivalent to close degrees and safety degrees,were obtained by taking gas emission quantity, ventilation quantity, content of gas of the three roadways into the model. The order of gas outburst fatalness of the three roadways was obtained from the result of the calculation, which indicated that the accuracy was increased to some extent compared with the original method and can be scientific basis for risk evaluation.