基于一元回归模型的平遥古城低碳旅游预测研究

Prediction of Low-carbon Tourism Based on Single-element Regression Model at Pingyao Ancient City

通过平遥古城2008-2013年旅游碳排放量数据,分析了古城旅游以二氧化碳为主的碳排放量现状.随着旅游经济的快速发展,旅游收入的平稳增涨,平遥古城碳排放量呈现逐年增长的趋势.运用统计方法,建立了平遥古城旅游碳排放量与旅游收入之间的一元回归分析定量模型并绘制出二者之间的散点关系图.把平遥古城2008-2013年旅游碳排放量数据输入C++程序一元回归分析模型,预测了2014-2017年平遥古城旅游碳排放量的范围值.根据以上数据分析过程和结论,提出控制平遥古城旅游碳排放量的合理建议.

That the present situation of carbon emission at Pingyao Ancient City is mainly Corbon Dioxide, according to its data from 2008-2013 tourism-carbon data from 2008 to 2013,was analyzed in this paper. And its carbon emission trends to increase year by year with the rapid development of tourism economy and the steady growth of tourist income. The monadic regressive analysis quantitative model between the carbon emission and the tourist income was set up,and its splattering relation schema was drawn out by using statistical approach. And al-so,the range value of the carbon emission from 2014-2017 was predicted by inputting the data from 2008-2013 into the C+ + software to analyze. In the end,some reasonable proposals for controlling the emission at Pingyao Ancient City were put forward on the basis of the above data analysis procedures and the results.