一次地震预报有效性的“距准误差”评价法——中短期前兆及预报效能评价之一

On efficiency of an earthquake prediction based on the estimation method of "error from target center

一次地震预报有效性的评价是中短期前兆预报效能统计评分的基础。研究提出了基于误差概念的距准误差评价法(打靶模型)。以预报三要素(φ、λ可合为“地域”一个要素)的目标点为“准”,以准理想预报尺度围成的封闭区为“靶心”,以可容忍误差尺度为“靶径”。实际地震与目标点的距离(误差)小于准理想尺度,则地震预报击中“靶心”即为实现准理想预报(评分为1),以此向外逐渐扩大到可容忍误差尺度为止,误差超过此尺度即为“脱靶”(评分为0)。根据当前预报的实际水平,考虑了中期、短期和短临三类预报及预报震级的不同,分别给予准理想预报尺度和可容忍误差尺度的约定标准。实例证明方法有效可用。

The evaluation of the efficiency of an earthquake prediction is based on statistical e-valuation of the efficiency of middle-short term precursor prediction. Our study comes up with the evaluation method of 'Error from target center' based on the concept of 'error' ('target practice' model), which takes the objective point of three factors to predict as center, the closed area circled by semi-precision prediction scale as target standard point, acceptance-error scale as target radius. If the distance between the real earthquake and the objective point (error) is less than the semi-precision scale, prediction hits the target center, i. e. realizing the semi-precision prediction (The score is 1). Then extending gradually to the acceptance-scale, exceeding the scale means 'off-target' (score 0). According to present actual level of prediction , and considering the three types of prediction, the mid-term, short-term and short and impending prediction, and the difference of prediction magnitudes, we give the standard of semi-precision scale and acceptance-error scale. The cases have verified that method is efficient and available.