投资项目经济评价不确定性分析方法及其应用

Uncertainty Analysisof Financial Evaluation of Investment Project and Its Application

用于计算投资项目经济指标的很多基础数据均来自预测和估算 ,因此经济指标受到各种不确定因素的影响。作者分析了盈亏平衡分析与敏感性分析等常规的不确定性分析方法 ,指出了这些方法存在的问题 ,在此基础上提出了一种新的综合运用层次分析法与蒙特卡罗法的不确定性分析方法 ,给出了用到投资项目经济评价中新的不确定性分析方法的计算方法。对于某投资项目 ,选取净现值为顶层目标 ,选取对净现值影响较大的投资额、经营成本和产品价格为模拟量 ,应用新方法进行了不确定性分析 ,得出该项目受未来不确定因素的影响很大 ,项目风险高的结论。案例分析表明 。

The economy index used in investment project is usually influenced by many uncertain factors because the basic data of which comes from forecast and budget. This paper studies such common uncertain analysis method as balance analysis of profit and loss, sensitivity analysis. The problems in these methods are pointed out and a new method of uncertainty analysis based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Monte Carlo method is advanced, along with its compute method in economy analysis of investment project. To an investment project, the authors set the NPV as the goal, set investment amount, prosecution cost and product price as the simulant values, which have relatively great effect on NPV. By using the new method in uncertain analysis, the conclusion can be drawn that the project is greatly influenced by the uncertain factors of future and it has high risk. A case study demonstrates that the new method can synthetically analyze the financial variety caused by uncertain factors.