组合预测技术在港口吞吐量预测中的应用研究

Research on the Application of Composite Prediction Technology for Forecasting of Port Throughput

以某港口近15a的货物吞吐量作为原始数据,在采用回归分析法和3次指数平滑法预测今后10a港口吞吐量的基础上,以"误差绝对值之加权和最小"作为最优准则,建立组合预测模型,用单纯形表法解出加权系数,得到预测结果。

Taking the cargo throughput of a port in the last 15 years as the original data and adopting 'the minimum value of the weighted sum of error absolute value' as the optimal rule of composite prediction on the basis of forecasting the port throughput in the coming 10 years by the methods of Regression Analysis and Three-time Exponential, a composite prediction model was established to find the solution to the weighted factor by means of Pure Chart Method and thus obtain the forecasting results. 