灰色预测系统GM(1,1)模型在处理唐山地震前地电资料中的应用

THE APPLICATION OF THE GREY PREDICTION SYSTEM GM (1,1) MODEL IN THE PROCESSING OF THE GEOELECTRICAL DATA BEFORE TANGSHAN EARTHQUAKE

本文应用灰色预测系统GM(1,1)模型,对唐山地震前震中距120公里范围内,观测资料较长,连续,且具有一定正常背景的全部地电台站的月均值资料进行处理。处理的结果表明:宝坻、昌黎、西集、青光等台都不同程度出现震前负异常现象。其中宝坻台出现唐山地震前异常与海城震前异常迭加的现象,西集、青光两台则在海城及唐山地震前呈现出两个独立的异常;对昌黎台部分资料进行处理,该台在唐山地震前呈现明显的下降;马坊台无异常显示。处理的结果除与以往的一些研究结果基本一致外,同时也提出一些新的认识。结果表明灰色预测系统在地电前兆数据的处理中有着一定的应用价值。

A Grey prediction system GM(1, 1) model has applied to process the monthly average value of the geoelectrical station data, which are within a epicental distance of 120Km and have longterm and continuous observation history and normal background. The results have shown: the data of Baodi, Chanli, Xiji, Qinguang etc stations present negative anomalous before the main shock in different level; Baodi station behaves the an omalous pattern overlap before Tangshan and Haicheng earthquake; Xiji and Qinguang stations have independent anomalous style before two main shock; Changli station gives obvious decrease before Tangshan earthquake; but Mafan station has no anoma-lous change. Besides the consistent results with that obtained before, we suggest some new opinion. These demonstrate that the Grey prediction system is available to the processing of the geoelectrical data.