重力模型标定方法及应用研究

On Calibration of the Gravity Model During Traffic Forecast

介绍了重力模型的各种不同形式的标定和检验方法,标定方法有最小二乘法、试算法及其改进方法,检验方法包括t检验法和相对差的检验。通过具体的算例,比较分析了它们不同的计算过程和结果,从而得出各类重力模型的标定和检验方法的特点。据此得出在我国的现有情况下的适用性。

Gravity model has been widely used in traffic forecast due to its simple framework and maneuverability. Generally, a calibration process is necessary before any gravity model is to be applied in practice. This paper reviews the calibration methods of gravity models, such as the least ?square regression and trial-and-trial method, and their tests such as the T-test. Through case studies with various methods, the author identifies the differences among calibration methods and their applicability as well. Based on analysis to the traffic situation of China and the characteristics of the models, the paper advances some measurements for their improvements in practice and finally concludes the application of the gravity model.