短临地震预报决策及其实施程序的研究

STUDYING ON THE FORECASTING DECISION OFSHORT-IMPENDING EARTHQUAKES PREDICTIONAND ITS IMPLEMENTING PROCEDURE

短临地震预报决策正确与否是减轻地震灾害的关键所在。本文根据决策学的基本原理及国内的地震预报实践,探讨了政府和地震部门首脑进行地震短临预报决策的基本原则、条件和程序,同时提出了短临地震预报决策模式、三级备震程序和7条对策措施。

Whether the forecasting decision of short-impending earthquakes prediction is correct or not is the key of reducing earthquake disaster. In this paper, the basic principle, factor and procedure which are carrying out by the leaders of the govement and the seismic departments are explored according to the fundamentals of decision and the practice of earthquake prediction in our country. At the same time, the decisive model of forecasting decision of short-impending earthquakes prediction, the procedure of preparation for earthquakes and seven decision measures are put up in this paper.