电力系统短期负荷预测的一种模糊建模方法

A Fuzzy Modeling Method for short-time load forecasting in electric system

预测问题在科学技术领域有着广泛的应用背景。本文介绍了一种短期负荷预测的模糊建模方法,基于三角形隶属函数和卡尔曼滤波器,辨识出电力系统的动态模型,并把辨识模型的仿真结果与系统实测值相比较,以检验模糊模型的可靠性。仿真结果表明,这种新的模糊建模方法具有较高的精度,为高度复杂的非线性电力系统模型化提供了一条新途经。此方法利用河北省某一地区具体的数据进行检验,得到了满意的结果。

Forecast had abroad applied in science technology field. This paper proposed a fuzzy modeling method for short ?term load forecasting. Based on triangle-shaped membership functions and Kalman filter, identify the dynamic model of power system. The model prediction result is compared to the experimental data to test the reliability of the fuzzy model. The method provides a new approach for modeling of high complicated nonlinear power system. The proposed model is tested using data of a big enterprise power system in Hebei, while load forecasts with satisfying accuracy are reported.