效应关联分析

Causal Relation Analysis

本文定量地研究了复杂系统的同构表示——关联模型问题.通过引进关联弹性的概念,将复杂系统的一般非线性关系化为线性的效应关联模型;并基于一个两国、三部门、单产品的开放经济模型,运用效应关联模型和综合弹性进行宏观经济分析,系统考察了凯恩斯财政政策和古典收入政策对两国经济的多种影响.

The isomorphic representation or the causal relation model for a complex system is studied. By employing flexibility coefficients, the nonlinear equation for a complex system is linearized to a causal relation model (CRM) with the rate of change of the old variables as the new variables. A macroeconomic policy analysis by CRM is then made with a maoroeconomic model involving two countries, three sectors and one product. The effects of implementing Keynes fiscal policy and classical income policy on the economy of the two countries are investigated.