软基路堤最终沉降量的灰色预测

Gray Forecast of Final Settlement of Soft Foundation

依托广肇高速公路软基试验路段 ,通过对实测沉降、分层沉降、孔压、侧向位移等资料的分析 ,掌握了软土路基变形的实际性状。由于软基塑流的复杂性 ,要准确计算塑流引起的附加沉降有相当大的难度 ,本文采用灰色理论进行最终沉降量预测 ,用三次B—Spline函数将原始沉降数据进行等时距处理 ,并用缓冲弱化算子的概念 ,以消除灰色预测模型的无限增长性 ,提高长期预测精度。通过比较说明 :灰色预测精度较双曲线法和三点法要高。

This paper which relies on the research of the test section of the soft foundation of the Guang-zhao highway. Through analyzing the in-suit datum such as total settlement, layered settlement, lateral displacement and pore water pressure, we mastered the actual deformation behavior of soft foundation. Because of the complexity of the soft foundation's plastic flow, it is much difficult to calculate the additional settlement caused by the plastic flow well and truly. The gray theory is used for forecasting the soft foundation's final settlement in this paper, and the cubic B-spline function is used to make the original datum to be same spatio-temporal, and the buffered softening arithmetic is used to eliminate the infinite increase of the gray forecasting model to increase the forecasting precision. Through the compare we can draw a conclusion that the gray forecasting's precision is better than the double curve method and the three points method.