登陆广东省热带气旋的奇异谱分析

THE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES LANDING IN GUANGDONG

利用奇异谱方法(SSA方法)分析登陆广东省的热带气旋的演变规律,发现年登陆的热带气旋数存在明显的8年、准3年的周期振荡;登陆珠江口以西的热带气旋数存在12年、准2年的周期振荡。把产生热带气旋的源地——西北太平洋划分为8个海区,对每个海区的海表温度进行奇异谱分析,结果显示NINO西区和暖池海区分别存在8年和3年的准周期振荡及12年和2年的周期振荡,这很可能是登陆广东的热带气旋产生的物理原因。最后结合最大熵谱方法(SSA-MEM)做出登陆广东省的全年和登陆珠江口以西的热带气旋趋势预报,其效果较理想,在短期气候预测业务中有一定的参考价值。

Using the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis(SSA), the evolution regularity of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong are analysed. The main periods of yearly topical cyclones landing in Guangdong are found at 8 and quasi-3 years, and in the west of Pearl River's mouth are 12 and quasi-2 years in the west of Pearl River抯 mouth. The north-west Pacific that generate topical cyclones are cut into 8 areas, and the Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) in each area are analysed using SSA. The main periods of NINO-west are 8 and 3 years, and the Warm-pool are 12 and 2 years, respectively. This may be the physical reason that generates tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong. By combining the Maximum Entropy Method(MEM) with SSA(SSA-MEM), the yearly variation trend of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong and the mouth of Pearl River are forcasted, and the result are good. The method can be used in operational short-range climate forcast.