海南省四十年来气候变化的多时间尺度分析

MULTI-TIME SCALES ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE VARIATION IN HAINAN PROVINCE DURING 40 YEARS

利用Morlet子波变换对海南省16个站1961～2000年的逐月平均气温和降水资料进行小波分析,结果表明:二维小波系数图可以清楚地显示出气候变化在不同时间尺度上的演变特征,并能对未来的气候演变趋势作出定性估计.小波方差图显示海南省逐月平均气温存在1.3～5.3年、7.5～10.7年的显著周期;逐月降水存在1.3～7.5年、10.7～21.3年的显著周期.气温和降水在不同时间尺度上的小波系数变化曲线图揭示了气候的长期和短期变化趋势有很大不同.

In this paper, Morlet wavelet transformation is used to analyze monthly mean temperature and precipitation of 16 stations in Hainan, China, from 1961 to 2000. The results show that the two-dimensional wavelet coefficient chart can manifest clearly the features of climate variation on different time scales and it could also be used to estimate qualitatively the future tendency of climate. The curves of wavelet variance show that prominent periods of monthly mean temperature are 1.3~5.3 years and 7.5~10.7 years, monthly precipitation has prominent periods of 1.3~7.5 years and 10.7~21.3 years. The wavelet coefficient curves of temperature and precipitation on different time scales reveal that the long periodical variation trend is quite different from the short.