亚太地区原油供需贸易展望

Outlook for Crude Oil Demand, Supply, and Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region

当前亚太原油市场的情况可以用“产量增长缓慢、出口量下降和进口需求上升”这三句话来概括。中东仍将是亚太原油进口的主要来源,而亚太未来从大西洋盆地所进口的原油在该地区市场中所占的比例也将上升,与之相对应的则是亚太自产原油份额在这一地区整个供应比例中将缩小。本文所讨论的问题涉及到亚太的原油产量、出口量以及进口需求,同时对这一地区的主要产油国和原油进出口国的情况做了概述。此外,文章还兼顾了亚太地区原油定价的现行体制,并在最后对这一地区未来石油进口依赖性的增长形势进行了预测。

Asia’s crude oil markets are characterized with flat regional crude production, declining crude export availability and rising crude imports. While the Middle East continues to be the dominant supplier of crude to the region, the role of the Atlantic Basin crudes is also on the rise, all at the expense of the dwindling share of the region’s own crudes in the overall crude utilization. This advisory discusses a number of issues including Asia’s crude oil production, export availability, import requirements, and profiles of major oil producers, exporters, and importers. It also reviews the existing mechanism of crude pricing in the Asia Pacific region. For concluding remarks, the rising overall oil import dependence in Asia is examined.