IPO时机选择研究

IPO Timing Research

本文将IPO股票根据IPO时的市场环境分成"冷市"、"普市"和"热市"三类,并从上市交易开始追踪股票5年的日收益率,最后从收益和风险两个角度刻画股票IPO之后的长期绩效并分析业绩变化路径。通过实证分析表明:"冷市"与"普市"中IPO股票的长期业绩较为稳定,"热市"发行的股票存在长期表现不佳的特征;"热市"发行的股票除IPO之后第1年内的业绩能够胜过"冷市"与"普市"发行的股票业绩之外,IPO之后第2年其业绩便迅速下降,到IPO之后第5年,其持有收益率分别落后于"普市"和"冷市"中IPO股票26.01%和32.80%;我国股票市场长期低迷是IPO时机选择的必然结果。

The IPO stocks are divided into three categories of'cold issue','common issue'and 'hot issue'according to the market environment at that time in the paper,and the daily yield from listing to next five years is tracked.Finally,this paper depicts the long-term performance of the IPO stocks after IPO and analyzes the changes path of performance.The empirical results show:the long-term performance of IPO stocks in'cold issue'and'hot issue'is comparatively stable,and the IPO stocks in 'hot issue'have the feature of long-term poor performance.The IPO stocks in 'hot issue'could surpass the IPO stocks in 'cold issue'and 'common issue'only in the first year after IPO,and their performance drastic decline from the second year,and in the fifth year after IPO,the HPY of IPO stocks in'hot issue'has been less then the IPO stocks' in'common stocks'and the IPO stocks' in 'cold issue'26.01% and32.80%respectively.It is the inevitable result of the IPO timing that long-term downturn for Chinese stock market.