中国养老金缺口的成因、风险及对策研究

Research on Causes,Risks and Resolutions of the Pension Gap in China

近年来,养老金缺口问题引起国家政府和学术界的广泛关注和热议。养老金缺口是我国养老体制转轨成本、人口老龄化、养老金支付水平不断提高以及养老金"双轨制"综合作用的结果。从短期来看,养老金缺口会给我国的财政支付造成巨大压力;从长期来看,它将会严重影响我国经济的正常运行。为了化解养老金缺口风险,可以采用渐进式延迟退休、发展补充养老保险、国有资产划拨、养老金并轨、提高养老金投资规模和收益率以及发行政府债券等方法。

In the recent years,pension gap has aroused widespread concern and hot discussion of Chinese government and researchers.China's pension gap has resulted from transition cost of pension system,aging of population,constantly increasing standard of pension payment and double-track pension system.In the short run,pension gap will put great pressure on fiscal expenditure;in the long run,it will make a considerable influence on the normal operation of economy.To defuse the risks of pension gap,it is practicable to adopt the following ways:progressive delay retirement,deeper development of supplementary pension insurance,state-owned asset allotment,reform of dual-track pension system,increase of the scale and yield of pension fund investment and government bond issuance.