经济转型和增长

Economic Transition and Growth

经济学家们正在对新古典增长模型作一些改进,以研究经济体和技术进步率在横截面(空间)数据上的不同。这些模型描述了经济体的变化状态,这些变化状态包括不同经济体收敛于稳态路径和变化中出现的各种相同或不同的形式。这篇论文详细阐述了对这些变化进行建模的机制和如何在计量上将这些变化测算出来。我们提出了关于衡量收敛的一个新的回归检验方法,推导出了它的渐进性质,给出它的有限样本性质的模拟结果。在对美国区域数据,经合组织数据以及宾夕法尼亚大学世界表(Penn World Table da-ta),运用一系列经验方法研究的基础上,我们得出了单个经济体和经济组织的变化曲线。

Some extensions of neoclassical growth models are discussed that allow for cross section het- erogeneity among economies and evolution in rates of technological progress over time.The models offer a spectrum of transitional behavior among economies that includes convergence to a common steady state path as well as various forms of transitional diver- gence and convergence.Mechanisms for modeling such transitions and measuring them econometrically are developed in the paper.A new regression test of convergence is proposed,its asymptotic properties are derived and some simulations of its finite sample properties are reported.Transition curves for individ- ual economies and subgroups of economies are esti- mated in a series of empirical applications of the meth- ods to regional US data,OECD data and Penn World Table data.