经济体制转型的动态演化分析:一个沉淀成本方法

The Analysis of Dynamic Evolution of Economic Transition:A Sunk Cost Perspective

由新古典经济学和规范决策理论可知,沉淀成本已经支付了,因其不构成机会成本,所以它不应该影响当前或未来决策,体现沉淀成本决策不相关。然而,由于沉淀成本决策不相关的假设前提十分苛刻,所以,在经济体制转型时期,因有限理性、市场不完全或者委托代理等原因,沉淀成本十分普遍,决策者往往考虑过去发生的沉淀成本,从而出现沉淀成本决策相关性问题。因此,一方面,我们需要承认经济体制转型时期沉淀成本问题的存在;另一方面,需要采取恰当的非正式和正式制度克服沉淀成本负面效应,以及加强沉淀成本管理,从而加速经济体制转型,这对于构建中国特色的社会主义市场经济体制十分重要,从而可以预测经济体制动态演化背后的经济逻辑和一般规律,为经济转型再次进行微观经济分析提供一种新的分析方法。

The existing economic literature on econom- ic transition is drawn from the neoclassical economics under perfect information or rational expectation, which ignore the sunk cost effect,that is,current or future decision should not be influenced by sunk cost incurred by the planned system,characterized by irrel- evance of sunk costs.However we found that there are a lot of sunk cost phenomena during the transition under imperfect information or bounded rationality, that is,decision relevance of sunk costs.Therefore we provide some solution to sunk cost problem in order to speed up the transition from the planned system in- to the market system.