为出口而进口:非对称战略的背景、内在机制和外在冲突

Import-for-export:Background,Internal Mechanism and External Conflict of the Unbalanced Strategy

本文从阳光集团案例出发,构建了一个包含产品质量属性的垄断竞争贸易模型,认为"为出口而进口"战略的实施能解释中国出口奇迹的产生。为了实施出口导向战略,在本土装备制造业技术落后的前提下,中国出口厂商选择大量进口发达国家先进机器设备来提高产品质量,以此满足国际市场对产品质量的更高要求,从而实现出口规模的持续高速增长。本文发现短期内,如果来自发达国家的进口机器设备越能降低生产边际成本,价格越接近于发展中国家国产机器设备时,发展中国家最终产品出口厂商就越倾向于进口机器设备。发展中国家出口厂商一旦使用进口机器设备,那么必然会导致其出口量上升,即产生"进口引致型出口"效应。同时如果进口机器设备提高最终产品质量幅度越大,发展中国家最终产品出口厂商就越倾向于进口机器设备,而且出口量增长幅度越大。本文还利用统计分析发现为出口而进口战略实施导致中国中西部本土装备制造业发展滞后,同时长期均衡分析表明为出口而进口会导致发展中国家所有下游出口厂商的均衡产量都会上升,均衡产品质量提高,且该行业均衡厂商数量下降。

Based on the case of Yangguang Group, this paper constructs a monopolistic competition trade model with product quality,and supposes the strate- gy of ‘import-for-export’ can explain China's export miracle.In order to realize the export-oriented strate- gy,conditioned with the lag of native machinery man- ufacturing,Chinese export firms import advanced ma- chinery from developed countries massively to im- prove the product quality,and satisfy the higher re- quirement for product quality in international market, and eventually expand the export size constantly and rapidly.This paper finds in the short run,the more extent imported machinery from developed countries can decrease marginal production cost,and the closer the price is to the price of native machinery,the more preferd to imported machinery final product exporting firms of developing countries will be.And after this, the export size will increase,which can be defined as import-induced export effect.And the more extent imported machinery improves the final product quali- ty,the more prefered to import machinery final prod- uct exporting firms of developing countries will be, and the more extent the export will increase.By sta- tistical analysis,this paper also finds the realization of import-for-export causes the lag of native machinery manufacturing in Chinese middle and western regions. The long run equlibrium analysis shows import-for- export improves the equilibrium output and product quality of all export firms in the developing countries, but the equilibrium number of firms in this industry will decrease.