为什么中国文娱消费偏低? 基于人口年龄结构的解释

Why Cultural Entertainment Consumption is Low in China? Interpretation Based on Population Age Structure

促进文娱消费对于拉动文化产业高质量发展、满足人民精神文化需求至关重要,但我国居民文娱消费增速偏低,对此学界还欠缺足够的经验论证。文章基于人口年龄结构视角,利用中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS2016)考察中国城镇居民人口年龄结构变迁对文娱消费的影响。实证结果发现:整体而言,城镇家庭少儿人口占比具有显著的文娱消费需求效应,但家庭老年人口占比增加对文娱消费需求形成挤压;进一步研究发现,文娱消费需求效应伴随少儿的成长表现更为旺盛,而老年阶段的文娱消费需求随着年岁增长愈加不敏感。进一步机制分析表明,家庭收入水平和教育程度能够正向调节家庭老龄化的文娱消费需求效应,在收入水平更高、教育背景更好的家庭,人口老龄化对文娱消费的挤出效应愈不明显;在教育背景、健康状况更优的家庭,少儿抚养数量增加带来的正向文娱消费需求会被部分挤出。旨在促进城镇居民文娱消费的政策应该顺应我国人口结构变动规律,充分尊重不同年龄消费群体的文娱消费选择及习惯,重点关注'多子化'、高收入、高学历家庭的文娱消费需求,在全面提高居民收入水平的基础上,培育发展壮大细分文娱产业和消费市场,让更多居民对文娱'能消费'、'愿消费'。

Promoting recreational consumption is of vital importance to drive the high-quality development of cultural industry and meet people’s spiritual and cultural needs.However,the growth rate of recreational consumption of residents in China is low,for which the academic circle still lacks sufficient empirical proof.Based on the perspective of population age structure,this paper uses the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS2016)to investigate the influence of the changes in population age structure of Chinese urban residents on the entertainment consumption.The empirical results showthat:firstly,on the whole,the proportion of children in urban households has a significant effect on entertainment consumption demand,but the increase in the proportion of the elderly squeezes the consumption demand for entertainment.Further research shows that the consumption demand effect for entertainment is more vigorous with the continuous growth of children,while the entertainment consumption demand in the elderly stage is less sensitive with the growth of age.Secondly,the mechanism analysis shows that the family income level and education level can positively adjust the entertainment consumption demand effect of family aging.In families with higher income level and better educational background,the crowding out effect of population aging on entertainment consumption is less obvious.In families with better educational background and health status,the positive consumption demand of entertainment brought by the increase of children’s raising will be partially squeezed out.Relevant policies should comply with the changing laws of China’s population structure,fully respect the recreational consumption choices and habits of consumers of different ages,and focus on the recreational consumption needs of families with'multiple children',high income and high education.On the basis of comprehensively raising the income level of residents,we will cultivate,develop and expand subdivision of the entertainment industry and consumer market,so that more residents can and are willing to consume entertainment.