我国工业化和城镇化协调的空间偏效应与污染集聚治理研究——基于SLXM模型

China’s Spatial Partial Derivatives Effect of Coordination between Industrialization and Urbanization and Pollution Agglomeration Control Based on SLXM

为了应对因工业化和城镇化进程加快而带来的污染集聚效应,从理论上探索'两化'协调发展方式,即运用系统动力学基本结构流图模型构建'两化'协调效应机制,论证'两化'协调对污染集聚的治理作用。同时,运用SLXM的空间计量模型,实证检验我国30个省市的'两化'协调效应。结果表明,'两化'协调确实有助于污染集聚的治理,一方面,工业化对污染集聚估计系数从协调前的3.6965下降为协调后的0.9318,城镇化进程也能产生治理效应,从协调前的14.0708下降为协调后的11.4684,并在城镇化溢出效应作用下总体下降为-0.3339;另一方面,城镇化进程和'两化'耦合协调度产生的间接溢出效应对污染集聚治理也具有正向作用。此外,劳动力集聚和技术集聚均直接地产生污染集聚的治理效应,而资本聚集却促使了污染集聚的产生。由此提出我国应该通过加快城镇化进程,提高城镇化水平;增加劳动力投入,提高劳动者报酬;降低资本投入,适当稳定资本收益等相关政策建议。

In order to cope with the pollution agglomeration effect brought by the industrialization and urbanization process,this paper theoretically explores the coordinated development mode of industrialization and urbanization,that is,using the system dynamics basic structure flow graph model to construct the coordinated effect mechanism of industrialization and urbanization,which demonstrates the governance role of coordination of industrialization and urbanization on pollution agglomeration.Meanwhile,SLXM’s spatial measurement model is adopted to empirically test the coordinated effect of industrialization and urbanization of 30 provinces and cities in China.The research shows that the coordination of industrialization and urbanization do contribute to the governance of pollution agglomeration.Moreover,through the coordinated partial effect of industrialization and urbanization,it further verifies that the coupling coordination degree of industrialization and urbanization can weaken the pollution agglomeration effect of industrialization and urbanization process.On the one hand,the estimated coefficient of industrial pollution agglomeration drops from 3.6965 to 0.9318 after coordination,and the estimated coefficient of urbanization drops from 14.0708 to 11.4684 after coordination,the overall decline is-0.3339 under the spillover effect of urbanization.On the other hand,the urbanization process and the indirect spillover effect generated by coupling coordination degree of industrialization and urbanization also have a positive effect on pollution agglomeration governance.In addition,labor agglomeration and technological agglomeration directly produce governance effects of pollution agglomeration,while capital accumulation promotes the generation of pollution agglomeration.In this regard,China should accelerate the process of urbanization,improve the level of urbanization,increase labor input,improve labor compensation,reduce capital investment,and appropriately stabilize capital gains.