生猪养殖户病死猪处理影响因素及其行为选择——基于仿真实验的方法

Simulating Selection Process of Pig Farmers′Disposing Behavior of Dead Pigs:Simulation Experiment Method

本文以江苏省阜宁县654位生猪养殖户为案例,借鉴行为概率的定义与内涵,选取影响生猪养殖户病死猪处理的影响因素,采用仿真实验的方法,模拟影响因素在生猪养殖户病死猪处理行为选择的过程发挥的作用。研究结果显示,养殖年限、养殖规模、政府政策与相关法律法规认知、生猪疫情与防疫认知等因素的变化均会导致生猪养殖户病死猪处理行为选择的改变,并且某些因素的改变与养殖户病死猪处理行为选择之间并非简单的线性关系。本文的研究意义,就在于根据仿真实验的分析结果为政府从源头上治理病死猪流入猪肉市场的乱象提供了决策参考。

Based on the case of 654 pig farmers in Funing,Jiangsu Province,and referring to the definition and connotation of behavior probability,this research selected several factors affecting pig farmers′disposing behavior of dead pigs.Computational simulation experiment method was adopted to simulate how those factors play the role in the process of pig farmers′disposing behavior of dead pigs.The results demonstrated that the change of pig farmers′disposing behavior of dead pigs was the result of the variation of those factors selected:production history,size of production,government policy,and relevant regulation and law cognition.There were some factors displaying non-simple linear relationship between dead disease pigs disposing behavior and some factors.The research significance of this paper is to supply decision-making reference for government to better manage the phenomenon of dead disease pigs throwing and flowing into market by eliminating its root causes.