科学研判人口形势 积极应对人口挑战

Scientifically Judging the Situation and Actively Meeting the Challenge of Population

对中国生育水平的基本判断:全面两孩政策实施前的10年间,全国平均总和生育率应该在1. 65左右,全面两孩政策实施后,总和生育率有所上升;低生育率是一种全球趋势;中国生育率走低的因素仍在强化;"自主生育"应该是计划生育政策继续调整的方向;中国人口总量在2028年达到峰值,然后开始下降,到21世纪末接近10亿。劳动年龄人口的素质和劳动生产率的高低比劳动年龄人口数量对经济发展的影响更大。应对劳动年龄人口规模下降的战略重点应该是充分挖掘人口素质红利,努力提高劳动生产率,以劳动力质量、人力资本提升替代和应对劳动力数量的下降,用质量换数量。我国人口年龄结构老化是人口未来发展的确定性趋势,在整个21世纪都不会逆转。

Basic judgment of fertility level in China: In the 10 years before the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, the national average total fertility rate should be around 1. 65. After the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, the total fertility rate has increased. The low fertility rate is a global trend;the factors for the low fertility rate in China are still intensifying;'self-determined fertility' should be the direction of the continuing adjustment of family planning policy;the total population of China will reach its peak in 2028, and then begin to decline, reaching nearly one billion bythe end of this century. The quality and productivity of the working-age population have a greater impact on economic development than the number of the working-age population. To cope with the decline in the size of the working-age population, the strategic focus should be to fully tap the dividend of population quality, strive to improve labor productivity, improve the quality of labor force and human capital,replace and cope with the decline in the number of labor force, and exchange quality for quantity. China’s aging population structure is a definite trend of future population development, which will not be reversed throughout the 21st century. Population development strategy should focus on two aspects: one is to make an accurate judgment on the overall process and characteristics of China’s future aging, and to maintain a clear understanding of the impact of aging on social and economic development;the other is to explore strategies and measures to deal with the aging in China.