关于有效防控中国金融风险的理论反思

Theoretical Reflection on Effective Prevention and Control of China's Financial Risks

有效地防控中国金融风险是今年政府金融工作的三大主要任务之一。要达其目标,就得认清中国金融风险的根源与实质。一般来说,金融风险或金融危机的根源是信用的过度扩张,但每一次的表现方式都会不一样。中国金融风险的根源同样是信用的过度扩张。由于政府、企业、家庭的信用过度扩张,让大量的资金涌入不同资产领域,而不是实体经济领域,并推动资产价格快速膨胀。这不仅导致了金融市场乱象丛生,也增加了金融风险。而资金涌入房地产市场,推高资产价格,是当前中国最大的金融风险。如果房价下跌,所潜藏的金融风险都会暴露出来,并可能由此引发金融危机。所以,有效地防控中国金融风险,逐渐地挤出房地产市场泡沫,是化解当前中国金融风险的关键所在。

Effective prevention and control of China's financial risks is one of the three major tasks of the government's finance work this year. Clarifying the generation and nature of China's financial risks is essential to meet these objectives. Generally speaking,financial risks/financial crisis derive from the over-expansion of credit,despite presented in different ways each time occurred.China's financial risk is also caused by over-expansion of credit,through the unleashed credit expansion of government,firms and households that driven capitals into financial assets but not the real economy. This over-expansion of credit leads to chaotic financial market and increasing financial risks. Particularly,the largest financial risk of China is the rising of asset prices through the capitals flooding into real estate. If the house prices collapse,severe financial market crisis could be triggered by the exposure of the underneath financial risks. Therefore,effective prevention and control of China's financial risks,and relief of the real estate market bubble,are key to resolve the current financial risk of China.