老龄化、产业结构高级化与经济增长——兼论如何缩小地区收入差距

Aging,Industry Structure Upgrading and Economic Growth:A Reconsideration of How to Reduce Regional Income Gap

立足于中国老龄化的严峻事实和产业结构逐步优化升级的现实,本文在理论分析老龄化与经济增长关系基础上,通过加入产业结构高级化中间渠道,阐述了产业结构高级化进程可以缓释老龄化对经济增长的负面冲击,并利用1997-2016年省级面板数据对上述关系进行了检验。结果发现:第一,老龄化对经济增长具有负面影响,特别是城市老龄化率的上升对经济增长的负面冲击更大;第二,加入老龄化与产业结构高级化交叉项后发现,推进产业结构高级化一定程度上缓解了老龄化对经济增长的负面影响;第三,老龄化加剧了地区间收入差距,但可以通过推动产业结构高级化这一重要抓手来吸引劳动力回流,加快落后地区经济增长,从而降低地区间收入差距。本文最后提出加大教育、在职培训等人力资本投资,不断提供与产业结构高级化方向相匹配的人力资本及加快产业转移实现地区间产业结构互补的梯度模式等政策建议。

Based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship between population aging and economic growth,this paper found that the process of industry structure upgrading can mitigate the negative impact of population aging on economic growth by using provincial panel data from 1997 to2016.First,the aging of the population has a negative impact on economic growth,especially the increase of the aging rate of the city;Secondly,after adding the cross term of population aging and industry structure upgrading index,it can be seen that promoting industry structure upgrading can alleviate the negative impact of population aging on economic growth to some extent.Third,the aging of the population has aggravated the income gap between regions.However,by promoting the process of industry structure upgrading,we can attract the backflow of labor force,accelerate the economic growth of backward regions and reduce the income gap between regions.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as increasing investment in human capital such as education and on-the-job training,continuously promoting match human capital and the direction of industrial structure upgrading,and accelerating industrial transfer to realize the complementary gradient mode of industrial structure between regions.