农业氮污染:责任与控制

The Nitrogen Pollution of Aqricultural: Responsibility and Control

本文基于WIOD提供的世界投入产出表,利用MRIO模型测算了1995—2015年全球N2O污染总量和分布格局,重点分析了中国供给侧和需求侧N2O排放的国际占比、国别流向和部门分布,并对其构成进行分解;通过引入贸易隐含N2O排放差额的概念,分析了不同责任原则下的排放差异,并从中间产品和最终产品视角初步解释了造成这种差异的原因;应用SDA'两级分解平均法'研究了N2O排放增长的主要驱动因素。研究发现:全球N2O排放增长率虽不大,但其所造成的潜在温室效应已超过2014年和2015年全球CO2排放量之和,且大多数发展中国家仍呈持续增长态势,其中,农业部门是N2O排放主体。中国供给侧和需求侧N2O排放均位居全球第一位,虽然内需排放占主导,但外需排放比重在不断增加。进一步地,农产品最终需求规模的扩张和前向国际产业关联效应的增强是N2O排放增长的最主要驱动因素;而抑制N2O排放增长的最主要因素是优化农业氮排放强度及其最终需求产品结构。

Based on the world input-output table provided by WIOD,this paper estimated the current situation of N2O pollution in global from 1995 to 2015 by using MRIO model,respectively analyzed the international proportion,country flow and sector distribution of N2O emissions from the supply side and demand side in China,and further decomposed its constitution.By introducing the concept of embodied N2O emission gap in the trade,the emission differences under different liability principles are analyzed,and the causes of such differences are explained from the perspective of intermediate products and final products.Finally,the driving factors of N2O emission growth were studied by using SDA'two-stage decomposition average method'.The research found that despite of the low growth rate of the global N2O emissions,the potential greenhouse effect caused by the N20 emissions was larger than the effect caused by the sum of global C2O emissions in 2014 and 2015.Most of the developing countries are still showing the tendency of such sustained growth.The N2O emissions from China’s supply side and demand side are ranked first in the world.Domestic demand dominates the emissions,but the proportion of the emissions led by foreign demand is increasing;the agricultural sector accounts for the main source of N2O emissions from the supply side and the demand side.Furthermore,the expansion of the final demand scale and the enhancement of the forward international industrial correlation effect of agricultural sector are the main impetuses of the N2O emission growth,while the primary factors that inhibit the growth of N2O emission are the optimization of both nitrogen emission intensity and final demand structure of agricultural sector.