新疆及其邻区4次M≥7强震预测总结与未来7级强震预测研究——基于有序网络结构分析

Prediction summary of M≥7 earthquakes in Xinjiang based on the ordered network structure analysis

1800年以来,新疆及其邻区M≥7强震具有显著的可公度性和有序性,其主要有序值为(30a)×k(k=1,2,3)、11~12a、41~43a、18~19a与5~6a等.利用翁文波信息预测理论,根据已有的研究成果,将有序网络结构分析与复杂网络技术相结合,补充新信息,不断总结优化和构建该研究区M≥7强震二维平面与三维立体有序网络结构,充分揭示该区210多年来M≥7强震的活动规律,并据此较为成功地预测了1996年以来该区所发生的4次M≥7强震,即从1996年喀拉昆仑山7.1级强震,到2003年俄、蒙、中边境7.9级强震,再到2008、2014年于田2次7.3级强震.同时还提出新的预测意见:该研究区未来2次M≥7强震将可能发生在2019—2020、2025—2026年前后.研究结果表明:强震是可以预测的.有序网络结构分析方法对于强震的中长期跨越式预测具有独特效果.

M≥7 earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in China's Xinjiang and its adjacent regions since 1800,with the main orderly values being (30 a)×k(k=1,2,3),11?12 a,41?43 a,18?19 a, and 5?6 a.In the guidance of the information forecasting theory of Weng Wenbo,and by combining ordered network structure analysis with complex network technology,we focus on the prediction summary of M≥7 earthquakes in Xinjiang and its adjacent regions by using the ordered network structure,and add new information to further optimize the network,hence construct the 2D?and 3D?ordered network structure of M≥7 earthquakes.In this paper,the net?work structure fully revealed the regularity of seismic activity of M≥7 earthquakes in the study region during the past 210 years.Based on this,four M≥7 earthquakes were predicted successfully in turn in this region,namely the Karakorum M7.1 earthquake in 1996,the M7.9 earthquake in the junction area of Russia,Mongolia,and China in 2003,and the two Yutian M 7.3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014.At the same time,a new prediction result is presen?ted that the future two M≥7 earthquakes will probably occur around 2019-2020 and 2025-2026 in the research region.The results show that large earthquake occurred in defined region can be predicted. The method of ordered network structure analysis produces satisfactory results for the moderate and long term prediction of M≥7 earth?quake.