电力系统中长期负荷预测的参数抗差估计研究

Study on parameter robust estimation for mid-long term load forecasting of power system

主要介绍提高中长期负荷预测结果的准确性和改善中长期负荷预测方法的抗粗差效果,对中长期负荷预测中参数的抗粗差估计进行了研究,提出了基于权函数的电力系统负荷预测参数抗差估计算法,通过对加权最小二乘法的修改,实现了负荷预报模型参数的抗差估计。算例表明,所提出的算法在处理中长期负荷预测中数据的粗差问题上效果较好,是改善预测精度的有益尝试。

The robust estimation of forecasting model parameters is roughly dealt with to increase the precision of mid-long term load forecasting and improve the endurance of load forecasting model to raw bad data.An algorithm for parameter robust estimation of power system load forecasting is presented,which is based on weight function with simple revision of WLS.Example indicates that the algorithm presented here could get good effect in processing the raw error of mid-long term load forecasting and be a useful try to improve the forecasting precision.