市场秩序预警系统研究

Study on Warning System of Market Order

本文系统研究市场秩序预警系统的建立。首先选择能够全面、灵敏地反映市场秩序发展变化的预警指标体系 ,然后根据市场秩序的特点和运行规律 ,选择运用模糊马尔可夫链对市场秩序进行预警区间判断 ,最后探讨市场秩序单指标预警以及综合预警指标的计算方法 ,并通过对经营者资格合格率的预警分析证明了模糊马尔可夫方法的有效性。通过上述研究 ,本文建立起来一整套市场秩序的预警方法体系 ,使市场秩序的研究更具有合理性。

This paper systematically explored the building of warning system for the market order.First of all,it sefected a system of warning index that can reflect the changes and devolopment of the market order comprehensively and sensitively.Then according to the characteristics and operation laws of the market order,it used the fuzzy Markov Chain for the judgement of the warning scope.Finally,it explored the calculation methods of single-index as well as comprehensive-index warning for the market order,and testified the validity of the fuzzy Markov Calculation Model by analyzing the qualified ratio of businessmen.So by building up a set of warning methods system for the market order,this paper,to some extent,helped the researches on the market order become more reasonable and scientific.