基于Lyapunov指数的预报方法及在气象预报中的应用

Prediction Based on Lyapunov Exponent and its Application in Weather Forecast

介绍了混沌时间序列的 Lyapunov指数预报分析方法 ,并应用混沌方法对气象预测时间序列进行处理 ,把其混沌特性应用于气象预报中。根据气象时间观测数据计算了重构相空间嵌入维数 D2 和 Lyapunov指数。结合实际例子对 Lyapunov指数预测方法进行了验证。

In this paper,we introduce the analysis and prediction method of Lyapunov Exponent about chaos time series,use the method of chaos to deal with the weather observation time series,and apply chaos characteristic in weather prediction.According to observed data of the weather,we calculate embed dimension D 2 of the phase space reconstruction and its' Lyapunov exponent.Last,we validate the prediction method of Lyapunov exponent with practica example.