长江经济带资源环境承载力评价及时空格局演变研究

Evaluation of resource and environment carrying capacity and its spatiotemporal pattern in Yangtze River Economic Belt

通过构建长江经济带资源环境承载力评价指标体系的基础上,运用熵值法对长江经济带资源环境承载力指数值进行测度,并采用探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)对长江经济带资源环境承载力时空格局演变过程进行研究。结果表明:2005-2016年长江经济带资源环境承载力整体指数值表现为波动上升趋势,但城市资源环境承载力指数值从东向西大体呈现逐渐递减的趋势,与经济发展水平呈现出一致性的特征。长江经济带资源环境承载力全局Moran′s I值总体不断增大,局部空间演变过程中,除热点区范围分布较为稳定外,次热点区、次冷点区和冷点区变化都较为显著。因此,长江经济带各城市在今后的发展中更应做到自我提高与协同发展,从而推动长江经济带资源环境承载力水平的提高。

In this article,the spatiotemporal pattern of resources and environment carrying capacity in the Yangtze River economic belt was investigated by constructing an evaluation index system of resource and environment carrying capacity,using the entropy theory to quantify the index value,and adopting the spatial data exploratory analysis method..The results show that the overall index value of resources and environmental carrying capacity of the Yangtze River economic belt in the 2005-2016 displayed a moderate upward trend,but the index value of urban resources and environmental carrying capacity gradually decreased from the east to west,which was consistent with the levels of economic development.The overall Moran′s I value of the resource and environment carrying capacity in the Yangtze River economic belt keeps on increasing.In terms of local scale evolution,the distribution of hot spots were relatively stable,while those of sub-hot spots,sub-cold spots and cold spots were relatively unstable.Therefore,cities in the Yangtze River economic belt should achieve self-improvement and co-development in the future development in order to promote the improvement of resources and environmental carrying capacity of the Yangtze River economic belt and to achieve high-quality development.