江苏碳排放的数量测算及其影响因素——基于改进STIRPAT模型的计量检验

Estimation and Influencing Factors of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Jiangsu Province——Based on the STIRPAT Model

文章从时间和行业两大维度测算了江苏碳排放的数量特征及其演进规律,在此基础上借助理论分析框架,运用改进的STIRPAT模型,基于江苏1990-2013年的时间序列数据对各变量间的关系进行了计量检验。实证结果显示:碳排放量与技术进步、经济增长及人口变动之间存在协整关系,技术进步对江苏碳排放的抑制作用不显著,而经济增长和人口变动在这方面的作用较显著。江苏应以技术进步为主要抓手,营造较好的产业平台与制度环境,以全方位推动低碳技术创新和应用。为了减少碳排放,江苏应该加大科技投入,促进低碳技术创新;应该改变能源结构,提高能源利用效率;应该借鉴先进经验,推进企业商业模式创新。

This paper estimates the number and evolution of carbon dioxide emissions in Jiangsu province from the dimensions of time and space Based on the carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2013 of Jiangsu, this paper discusses the influencing factors within the framework of STIRPAT model, and then conducts empirical studies. The results reveal that technology cannot reduce carbon dioxide emissions, while economic growth and population size increase such emis-sions.These findings suggest that the main starting point is to promote technological progress, to create a good institutional environment and industry platform, and to advocate the innovation and application of low-carbon technologies. Besides, greater technological investment should be put in the creation of low-carbon technology, the energy structure should be changed, and advanced experience should be borrowed, so as to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide remarkably.