宁夏产业结构与经济增长关系实证研究

Empirical study of the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth in Ningxia

为证实宁夏1995—2013年间产业结构与经济增长的关系,运用灰色关联度、回归分析和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法对宁夏产业结构与经济增长的关系进行实证研究.结果表明:第二产业对宁夏经济发展起着主导性的作用,其次是第三产业,第一产业对经济增长的贡献最小;在短期内,第一产业与经济增长之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系,第一产业与第二产业之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系,第二产业对第三产业存在单向格兰杰因果关系.

In order to verify the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth from 1995 to 2013 in Ningxia, grey correlation, regression analysis, Granger causality test and other methods were used to study the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth in Ningxia. The results show that the second industry plays a dominant role in the development of economy; the tertiary industry's contribution to the economy after the second industry; the first industry contribution to economic growth is minimal. In the short term, the bidirectional Granger causality relationship exists between the first industry and economic growth; the bidirectional Granger causality relationship also exists between the first industry and the second industry; the second industry to the tertiary industry is Granger causality.