安徽省池州市土地利用碳排放演变及其影响因素

Research on the carbon emission evolution of land use and its influential factors of Chizhou City in Anhui Province

碳排放和土地利用密切相关。依据土地利用碳排放测算方法,测算池州市2000—2010年主要土地利用类型耕地、林地、牧草地和建设用地碳排放量,同时对碳源、碳汇和净碳排放进行了测算,分析土地利用碳排放演变情况,计算地均碳排放强度和建设用地碳排放强度,并基于STIRPAT模型分析土地利用碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:1)2000—2010年池州市碳排放总量呈逐年递增的趋势,碳排放总量由2000年的35.835 4kt增加到2010年的1 774.016 3kt,碳排放总量递增主要以建设用地的碳排放递增为主,建设用地的碳排放量与碳排放总量具有趋同的变化趋势。2)2000—2010年池州市碳汇能力基本稳定,碳源与碳汇的比例整体呈增加趋势,由2000年的1.135 5增加到2010年的6.657 2。3)2000—2010年池州市土地利用碳排放变化划分为缓慢增长、快速增长和平稳增长3个阶段。4)地均碳排放强度呈现缓慢增长趋势,而建设用地地均碳排放强度则呈现波动上升的趋势,地均碳排放强度、地均建设用地碳排放强度的增长与工业经济发展水平呈正相关关系。5)碳排放量和人口总量、人均GDP之间的线性相关关系十分显著,且人均GDP对碳排放量的解释程度要大于人口总量对碳排放量的解释程度。

Land use is closely related to carbon emissions.According to the measurement method of land use carbon emissions,the carbon emissions of the main land use types were calculated,including cultivated land,woodland, grassland and land for construction from 2000to 2010in Chizhou City,and the carbon source,carbon sequestrate and the net carbon emissions were also calculated.Then land use carbon emission evolution was analyzed and land use carbon emission intensity was measured.Finally,based on the STIRPAT model,the influential factors of land use carbon emissions were analyzed.The results are as the followings.First,the total carbon emissions increased gradually from 2000to 2010in Chizhou City,the total carbon emissions had risen from 35.835 4kt in 2000to 1 774.016 3kt in 2010, especially the carbon emissions of construction land increased notably.The total carbon emissions and the carbon emissions of construction land showed the same increasing trend.Second,the carbon sequestration remained stablefrom 2000to 2010,the proportion of carbon source and carbon sequestration appeared an increasing trend,which had risen from 1.135 5in 2000to 6.657 2in 2010.Third,the changing process of land use carbon emissions was divided into three stages,including slow growth,rapid growth and stable growth stages.Forth,the land carbon emission intensity showed a trend of slow growth,and the construction land carbon emission intensity showed a fluctuant growth trend,and it was found that land use carbon emission intensity and industrial economic development level showed positively correlated relationship.Finally,the influential factors of land use carbon emissions were analyzed,it was found that linear correlation of carbon emissions versus population and GDP per capita was remarkably related,GDP per capita was the major cause of carbon emissions.It is also hoped to play a sample role in studying the driving factors of carbon emissions in other provincial administrative regions.