农户贷款第一还款来源影响因素及其应用分析——基于陕西省岐山县的调研数据

Analyzing the influencing factors of first resource repayment of household loan and its application: Based on the survey data of Qishan,Shaanxi Province

依据陕西省岐山县实地调研的农户数据,采用二元Logistic回归模型对第一还款来源影响因素进行实证分析,并对照回归结果将影响因素应用于农户贷款信用评级中。结果表明:农户性别、家庭年收入、贷款是否满足需要、贷款用途、有无政府贴息、农户的年龄、家庭人数、贷款期限、有无自然灾害对第一还款来源有显著影响;第一还款来源影响因素在农户贷款信用评级中的应用是可行、有效的。建议农村金融机构应侧重于以上显著影响因素提供差异化的金融产品和服务,有针对性地制定配套方案,并要充分考虑当地农户的个体特征因素,从根本上提高第一还款来源比重。

The binary logistic regression model was used in this paper to make an empirical analysis on influencing factors of the first repayment source according to the data of farmers in Qishan,Shan'xi province.The influencing factors in credit rating of farmers'loans were analyzed based on regression results.The results indicated that gender of farmers,household income,whether loans satisfy their needs,loan purpose,whether having government discount,ages of farmers,family size,loan period and whether there were natural disasters,had obvious influences on the first repayment source.The application of influencing factors of the first repayment source in credit rating of farmers'loans was feasible and effective.The research conclusion suggests that rural financial institutions should provide different financial products and services based on the obvious influencing factors mentioned above,release corresponding plans to promote the proportion of the first repayment source on the basis of considering individual characteristics of local farmers.