畜禽养殖业环境负荷与经济增长动态耦合趋势研究——基于浙江1978—2012年的时序数据

Research on the dynamic coupling of environmental load with economy growth in the industry of livestock and poultry breeding:Based on the time-series data of Zhejiang in 1978-2012

基于1978—2012年的时间序列数据,对浙江畜禽养殖环境承载力状况进行评价;进而借鉴系统科学的理论,建立畜禽养殖业环境负荷与经济增长的动态耦合模型,分析并预测"零方案"状态下至2050年浙江畜禽养殖业环境负荷与经济增长的动态耦合演化趋势。研究发现,浙江畜禽养殖业环境负荷与经济增长的动态耦合在"零方案"状态下,直至2050年都将处于拮抗期。经预测,2036年为浙江畜禽养殖业环境负荷与经济增长动态耦合倒"U"型演化趋势的唯一拐点,相应的动态耦合度为124.011 7。

It is increasingly not allowed to ignore the heavy environmental load with a rapid growth in the industry of livestock and poultry breeding.With the time-series data of Zhejiang during 1978-2012,first the bearing capacity of livestock and poultry breeding environment in Zhejiang was evaluated.Then based on the experience of a theory of system science,a model was built to analyze the dynamic coupling of environmental load with economy growth in the industry of livestock and poultry breeding.With this model,the trend of the dynamic coupling of environmental load with economy growth was calculated in the industry of livestock and poultry breeding under'Zero solution'in Zhejiang till2050.The findings indicated that the dynamic coupling of environmental load with economy growth in the industry of livestock and poultry breeding in Zhejiang was in an antagonism state during 2006-2012,and under'Zero solution',it would be held in the same state till 2050.Through the forecast,the sole inflection point of the inverted U-shaped curve presented in the trend of the dynamic coupling of environmental load with economy growth in the industry of livestock and poultry breeding in Zhejiang,will appear in 2036 with its dynamic coupling number 124.011 7.