基于内生性视角的非农就业对林地流转的效应评价——来自9省1497户林农的连续监测数据

The effect of off-farm employment on forestland transfer——An analysis based on endogenous perspective with 1497 households dataset from 9 provinces

本文构建了一个基于劳动力配置和林地流转的农户决策模型,在内生性视角下阐述了非农就业对林地流转的影响机制,据此提出了研究假说。并利用国家林业局经济发展研究中心在全国9个省份开展的大样本多年份连续监测数据,对上述假说进行实证检验。考虑到非农就业的内生性以及林地流转数据的截取性,本文采用了IV-Tobit模型及其估计方法。结果显示,非农就业行为对林地流入决策产生了负向影响,且在5%的统计水平上显著;相反,非农就业对林地流出具有正向的促进作用,但这种正向影响并未通过显著性检验。林地流入决策还显著受交易成本、木材价格等因素影响,而这些因素对林地流出均不显著。这反映出林地流入是受到市场机制影响的经济决策行为,而林地流出则是更偏向于受心理因素所决定的非市场化行为,二者在行为机制上的差异性为集体林改的后续配套改革提供了政策参考。

This paper established a theoretical framework,where farmers decide how to allocate the labor and forestland endowments to achieve profit maximization.Based on an endogenous perspective,we illustrated how the off-farm employment would affect forestland transfer and proposed our hypothesis.To prove this hypothesis,an SFA-conducted large sample dataset is employed,which is obtained from 9 provinces in China and is ranged from 2003 to 2013.The IV-Tobit approach is applied to controlfor the endogeneity of off-farm employment and the censoring feature of forestland transfer.The result shows that off-farm employment has a significantly negative effect on forestlands rent-in at the 5% statistically significant level.On the contrary,it has a positive effect on the forestlands rent-out,but is not significant.This might be caused by the social security function and endowment effects of forestland.In addition,forestland rent-in is significantly influenced by transaction cost,timber prices,etc,while these market-related variables are not significant in rent-out behavior.This finding suggests that forestland rent-in is a market-oriented and economic-based behavior,while forestland rent-out is more likely to be a mentality-based behavior,where the market mechanism plays limited roles.This difference should be noticed by policymakers.