农业技术进步对农业能源使用与碳排放的影响——基于GTAP-E模型分析

The Impacts of Technological Advance on Agricultural Energy Use and Carbon Emission-An Analysis Based on GTAP-E Model

受劳动力成本上升、水土资源制约,未来农业生产增长将依赖集约化、规模化、机械化经营,由此将带来农业能源使用与碳排放量的快速增长。技术进步被认为是减少农业碳排放量的重要途径。本研究利用能源-经济CGE模型(GTAP-E模型),构建2012—2030年中国经济增长的情景方案,模拟未来农业生产增长趋势,分析农业技术进步对农业能源使用与碳排放的影响。研究结果,随着农业生产的增长,2012—2030年农业部门对能源产品消耗的增长速度远高于同期产出增长率,同期农业碳排放增长超过120%。尽管影响机理存在差异,农业全要素技术进步和能源增进型技术进步在控制农业能源增长、减缓碳排放起均到了重要作用。

Influenced by rising labor wages as well as water and land constraints,China’s agriculture will increasingly rely on the intensive,large-scale,and mechanized production,which is expected to result in a rapid growth of energy consumption and carbon emission.Technological advance was regarded as a major way to reduce carbon emission in agriculture production.This study employs an energy-economic CGE model,GTAP-E model,and formulates a baseline scenario about global economic growth in the period of 2012-2030 to analyze the impacts of agricultural technological advance on energy use and carbon emission in agricultural sectors. Our results demonstrate that the uses of energy products by agricultural sectors would increase significantly from2012 to 2030,with annual averaged growth rate largely higher than that of agricultural output over the same period. Meantime,carbon emission of agricultural sectors would rise by over 120%.Despite of different mechanisms between TFP technology advance and energy-augmented technology advance,they both could make an important contribution in buffering the growth of agricultural energy consumption and carbon emission.