我国农村金融发展对农村消费影响的时变特征研究

Time-varying Effect of Rural Financial Development on Rural Consumption in China

本文在数理分析的基础上,采用滚动回归和时变参数向量自回归(TVPVAR)模型检验并分析我国农村金融发展对农村消费影响的时变特征。实证结果表明,1982—2014年间我国农村金融发展对农村消费的影响存在明显的时变效应。1996年之前,农村贷款对农村消费的促进作用微弱,农村存款和农村保险的增长抑制了农村消费增长;1996年之后,农村存款、贷款和保险均表现为对农村消费的促进作用。进一步的结论显示,短期内农村贷款对农村消费的促进作用最为显著,长期内农村消费的增加将更依赖于农村贷款和农村保险。为此,积极开拓面向农村的生产性信贷服务和消费信贷服务,增加适合农村的保险险种、扩大保险业务覆盖范围等对促进我国农村消费尤为重要。

On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper uses rolling regression and time-varying parameter vector auto-regression(TVP-VAR)model to test and analyze the time-varying effect of rural financial development on rural consumption in China.Empirical results show that the effect of rural financial development on rural consumption in China is obvious between 1982 and2014.Before 1996,the role of rural loans in promoting rural consumption was weak,and the increase of rural deposits and insurance had negative effect on rural consumption.After 1996,the increase of rural deposits,loans and insurance has significant positive in promoting rural consumption.Further analysis shows that rural loans play an important role in promoting rural consumption in short term,but in the long run,the increase of rural consumption depends more on rural deposits and rural insurance growth.Therefore,increase rural production and consumption credit services,developing the insurance that is suitable for rural residents and expanding the coverage of rural insurance are especially important in stimulating rural consumption in China.