中国出口农产品质量及国际比较——基于嵌套Logit模型

Quality Measurement of Chinese Exporting Agricultural Products and the Corresponding International Comparison——An Analysis with a Nested Logit Model

中国出口农产品频频遭遇以质量问题为由的扣留或拒绝,贸易损失不断。提升出口农产品质量成为当前中国农业发展亟待解决的问题。基于2005—2014年中国出口到美国的1771种HS10分位编码细分的农产品贸易数据,采用嵌套Logit模型对中国出口农产品质量进行了测度,并与同期世界4大农产品贸易国家(地区)进行对比分析。结果显示:中国出口农产品质量随着质量阶梯的波动延长呈现先降后增的变动态势,样本时期内中国出口农产品质量高于日本与欧盟,但低于巴西和东盟;从产品类别来看,中国出口畜产品质量具有绝对优势,出口水果质量劣势明显,出口蔬菜、水产品与坚果质量介于二者之间。

Since China’s accession to the WTO,the scale of trade in agricultural products has increased rapidly.However,the export of agricultural products has frequently been detained or refused on the basis of quality problems.Improving the quality of agricultural products has become an urgent problem which needs to be solved in China’s agricultural development.Using the agricultural product trade data during 2005-2014 which are based on 1771 HS10 quantile encoded agricultural products exported from China to the U.S.,the nested Logit model was adopted to measure the quality of Chinese exporting agricultural products.This study also conducts a comparison with the main agricultural products trading partners over the same period.The results show that along with the extension of quality ladder fluctuations the quality of Chinese agricultural products first decreases and then increases.During the same sample period,the quality of Chinese agricultural products is higher than that of Japan and the EU,but lower than that of Brazil and ASEAN.In terms of product categories,the quality of Chinese animal product has an absolute advantage,while the quality of fruit was significantly inferior.Between these two food categories are vegetable and aquatic products,and their quality are higher than the quality of the same products exporting from Japan and the EU,but lower than from ASEAN and Brazil.