中国主要农产品生产的机械劳动力替代弹性分析——基于不同弹性估计方法的比较研究

Elasticity of Substitution between Machines and Labor in China’s Agricultural Production——A Comparison Based on Various Elasticity Estimations

本文利用1984—2012年省级面板数据,估计了小麦、玉米、粳稻、大豆、棉花和油菜籽6种主要农产品的生产函数与效率方程,并着重比较分析了不同农产品的机械劳动力替代弹性。研究表明,直接替代弹性与Allen替代弹性方法低估了农产品生产的机械劳动力替代弹性,而Morishima替代弹性可以较好地反映机械劳动力替代弹性。在6种主要农产品生产中,机械对劳动力都有显著的替代性;其中,小麦生产作业中机械最大程度地替代了劳动力投入,而其他农产品尤其是棉花与粳稻生产的机械化有较大发展潜力。本文的研究结果不仅对未来相关研究提供了重要的理论与实证参考,而且对进一步推动我国农业机械化的政策制定提供了实证依据。

It’s important for decision makers to study the elasticity of substitution between machines and labor,not only for understanding the intensity of machine-labor substitution,but also for improving the resource allocation based on the price changes of factors of production.This article used commodity-wise province-level panel data from 1984 to 2012 to investigate the substitution between machines and labor through estimating frontier production functions. The results showed that both the direct elasticity of substitution and Allen elasticity of substitution underestimated machine-labor substitution,and that the Morishima elasticity of substitution could better reflect the substitution elasticity.The analysis also demonstrated that the substitution elasticity of machine-labor was statistically significant in the production of the six major crops,of which wheat faced the fastest substitution of labor by machines; cotton and japonica rice had large development potential for mechanization. The results could provide theoretical implications for the related research,and empirical basis for policymakers to further promote the agricultural mechanization.